Despite a slowdown in world trade, Greek export growth is expected to accelerate in 2024 − particularly in the second half − as global commerce recovers and with select Greek products holding on to competitive gains in overseas markets.

According to a new study by National Bank of Greece, Greek exports will increase by an estimated 2% to 3% in inflation adjusted terms this year, offsetting lingering uncertainties in the global economy and in certain sectors.

“Looking ahead to 2024, the anticipated resurgence in global trade (projected at +3.4% annual volume growth compared to +0.8% in 2023) is poised to substantially uplift Greek exports,” the report says. “Greek exports are projected to steadily gain momentum over the course of next year, with an estimated 2-3% increase in 2024.”

Over the last decade, Greece has witnessed an export boom as producers across a range of industries, from petroleum products to pharmaceuticals, from food to chemicals, have turned to overseas markets. Greek exports of goods and services combined last year were equal to 49% of GDP, a record high. As part of its national export strategy, the Greek government aims to increase the share of exports to 60% of GDP by 2027 and 70% of GDP by 2030.

The report, however, notes that export performance in the year ahead may be mixed. Major export categories, such as food and pharmaceuticals have gained market share over the past several months. Their relative resilience suggests that those sectors are poised for the fastest recovery. By contrast, declines in the overseas market shares of Greek clothing and textiles may reflect changing global trade flows